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Statistical tieSnapshot July 10, 2026Frozen · reproducible

Sparkling lemonade — three concepts vs shelf

3 concepts vs 2 shelf · 48 people · 312 choices

Provisional read

Winner
Citrus Grove
your concept
58of 100

wins out of 100 head-to-heads in this field

So far, Citrus Grove is ahead — but this is far too early to rely on.

The ranking comes only from forced choices between real options. You chose who competed; respondents chose who won — no question wording can tip it.

What to do next

Collect about 40 more respondents

Citrus Grove and Olipop Lemon Lime sit in overlapping ranges. Don’t force a single winner — field more people or take both into qual.

These results report what respondents chose in this head-to-head test. They are not a forecast of sales or a recommendation to launch.

The field

Citrus Grove
your concept$3.49
Olipop Lemon Lime
competitor$3.99
Sunspill
your concept$3.49
Spindrift Lemon
competitor$2.49
Zest Line
your concept$3.29

Why it played that way

Real head-to-head choices for Citrus Grove against each opponent in this field.

Citrus Grove
won 11–12
23 shown
Olipop Lemon Lime
competitor
Citrus Grove
won 14–8
22 shown
Sunspill
your concept
Citrus Grove
won 15–7
22 shown
Spindrift Lemon
competitor
Citrus Grove
won 16–5
21 shown
Zest Line
your concept

How often each one wins

Out of 100 forced choices against a random opponent in this field. The shaded band is the range we’re confident the true number falls in.

Citrus Grove
your concept$3.49

Likely between 46 and 69 out of 100.

58
of 100
Olipop Lemon Lime
competitor$3.99

Likely between 43 and 66 out of 100.

55
of 100
Sunspill
your concept$3.49

Likely between 38 and 61 out of 100.

49
of 100
Spindrift Lemon
competitor$2.49

Likely between 33 and 55 out of 100.

44
of 100
Zest Line
your concept$3.29

Likely between 28 and 49 out of 100.

38
of 100

What respondents told you

Every question in your study, answered.

What most drew you to the one you chose?

What respondents said drew them in — stated reasons, not proven causes.

health38% · 6 of 16
taste31% · 5 of 16
price19% · 3 of 16
packaging13% · 2 of 16

Would you buy this if you saw it on shelf at this price?

Stated intent, not a forecast of sales.

yes 31% · 5 of 16maybe 44% · 7 of 16no 25% · 4 of 16

Stated intent under test conditions — not a prediction of purchase or market share.

Who answered

How often do you buy sparkling beverages?

This describes your respondents, not a result about the product.

weekly50% · 8 of 16
monthly31% · 5 of 16
rarely19% · 3 of 16
Evidence quality
  • Position bias — 51% shown-first win rate. Near 50% means card position didn’t drive who won.
  • Pair coverage — each matchup shown ~22 times (18–26).
  • Fully comparable — all 5 on one ranking.
  • Cluster-robust intervals account for one person’s battles being correlated. We report the honest width.
Snapshot July 10, 2026
Frozen · reproducible